Forecasts are keenly observed by all investors and often applied in financial betting or trading. In this article, we will discuss the types of forecasts, their origins, and how they should be read and applied to become useful and beneficial to betting. Understanding their significance is crucial in the decision-making process and is conducive to making profits. And last but not least, their publication introduces rhythm to the betting strategy which often needs a stimulus to be defined and implemented.
Macroeconomic forecast
Let us take an example; a forecast for Retail Sales, a very vital macroeconomic data in each country. This figure reflects the stability of salaries, consumer sentiment and sometimes also inflation.
Firstly, although forecasts relate to the future they are rooted in the past and the present. In the process of defining possible future reading each analytic starts with checking the reading from the previous month and confronts it with all the developments in the last weeks that help identify a trend for Retail Sales. All recent related business reports, press releases, interviews of key players are analyzed to look for information that will indicate that the upcoming Retail Sales data will be positive or negative. However, the authors of forecasts must not limit themselves just to defining the direction. They have to predict a level, they have to come up with a number. And since these individual numeric predictions may vary among all the experts involved — the most optimistic and pessimistic predictions are eliminated and the median is calculated to find a middle road.
It is also important that the forecasts are published by the end of the week preceding the publication. This gives the investors time to prepare their strategies and decisions for the upcoming week.
As can be seen in economic calendars, not all macroeconomic announcements are accompanied by forecasts. The reason is very simple. Among a few hundreds of macroeconomic readings globally, only a group of about 50 have the gravity to move the markets. So it is only for them that the agencies run the forecast definition process.
PREVIOUS — FORECAST — ACTUAL sequence
How to read and use it in trading
Practically all major macroeconomic data releases are published once a month. All economic calendars display the PREVIOUS reading. Two main reasons why PREVIOUS matters: firstly, when seen together with FORECAST and ACTUAL we can see a tendency and decide to invest based on this observation. And secondly, for more inquisitive traders — after seeing PREVIOUS you may go back in your trading platform chart and see the market reaction then. FinBet uses this approach in producing Betting Opportunity posts. Because today’s PREVIOUS is last month’s ACTUAL with its impact on prices in the last cycle.
Price forecasts
This type of forecast may be very helpful for FinBet users, provided their authors gain their trust. Many individual and institutional investors come forward with their price predictions of all assets offered to bet on FinBet.
Individual investors and analysts post their forecasts on internet forums like stocktwits.com or reddit.com. The vast majority of such forecasts are short term if not directly intraday meaning that they predict the price direction within the next minutes or hours.
Institutional investors represented by their leading analytics periodically publish forecasts for stock, currencies and cryptocurrencies. Alternatively, individual investors post medium and long term forecasts. The price reactions to such forecasts are still immediate as their keywords are BUY or SELL. Meaning, the sooner you buy, the cheaper you buy. And conversely, the sooner you sell, the more loss you avoid. Similarly, while betting on FinBet, if you see an investor’s signal its better to act quickly! What is very important, is that the credibility of these predictions and recommendations are validated by the status of ratings of their authors, and the status of the financial institution behind them (a bank or an investment fund).
The sample below shows a series of forecast (or as they call them — ratings) display of tipranks.com website:
In summary, forecasts can serve as a very useful benchmark in trading or financial betting. They provide a qualified judgment regarding both the direction of the price, its potential level, the reasoning behind such a prediction and last, but not least — the time reference, namely the anticipated period for which the forecast is defined. In financial betting, this last benchmark can be applied in deciding the time frame for each bet offered on the FinBet platform, ranging from 1 minute up to 4 weeks.
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